We often view the labor market as directly tied to the economy. 2022 (and we believe 2023) will show a deviation from this trend. As the economy cools, the labor market remains strong with unemployment below 4%. Even if we get to 4.5%, although unlikely, the labor market will still be healthy. This battle between the economy and labor is completely misunderstood and is causing irrational behavior from company leaders. Panic over labor shortages will not decrease in 2023.
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